基于使用可靠性区域粒度的产品保修期优化决策

针对已有产品保修期设计多局限于固有可靠性,未考虑其使用可靠性与区域差异的关联性问题,提出一种基于使用可靠性区域粒度的保修期优化决策模型。首先根据使用可靠性区域粒度划分和售后故障数据构建使用可靠性预测模型,获得各区域的使用可靠性估计;进而建立综合考虑使用可靠性区域差异、保修成本和价格的保修期优化决策模型,并推导出该模型下的最优解。最后,将模型应用于空调产品的使用可靠性评估和保修期优化决策,并与传统做法进行对比,验证了模型的有效性和适用性。结果表明,从使用可靠性区域粒度的视角,可以适度延长保修期以实现利润最大化,且灵敏性分析定量揭示了模型参数对保修期、价格和利润的影响规律。     

Insights into the structures,energies and electronic properties of nesquehonite surfaces by first-principles calculations

By using the first-principles calculations, the structure, energies and electronic properties of four commonly exposed surfaces for the nesquehonite crystal were investigated. The needle-like nesquehonite whisker is well developed with smooth side faces and irregular hexagonal end faces. Surface energy results indicate that the (1 0 1) surface is the most stable surface and corresponds to the side face. The density of dangling bond has a positive relationship with surface energy and the (1 0 1) surface has the least dangling bonds. In terms of relaxed surface energy, the order of relaxed surfaces is (1 0 1) < (2 0 0)-H < (3 0 1) < (2 0 0)-M < (0 0 4). During surface relaxation, the changes in the length of Mg-O bonds and hydrogen bonds contribute to generating a more stable surface with a lower surface energy. The PDOS (partial density of states) of these surfaces are mainly dominated by Mg and O atoms. A small peak value is found in the PDOS of (1 0 1) and (3 0 1) surfaces, which have less exposed Mg-O bonds. Electron transfer causes changes in the length of Mg-O bonds. A more active surface will obtain a larger value of transferred electrons during surface relaxation.     

Influence of additive materials on the roughness of AISI D2 steel in electrical discharge machining (EDM) environment

The quality of the machined surface resulted from the electrical discharge machining (EDM) environment is not efficient according to the previous studies. One of the significant problems is the impedance of dielectric fluid, where it is contributing to focusing the plasma channel in a limited area. Hence, this behavior leads to appearing deep craters on the machined zone. The researchers have attempted to enhance the average of surface roughness by employing powder particles or surfactant as the additive materials in the dielectric fluid. Unfortunately, these studies did not present a comparison between these additive materials in this environment. Therefore, the present study aims to compare the performance of the average of surface roughness (R_a) for AISI D2 steel by utilizing Nano chromium powder (NCP) and Span-20. The present work has proved that the behavior of the average of surface roughness for this steel is dropping at the maximum level of Nano chromium powder concentration and pulse duration as compared to the behavior with the Span-20. Moreover, the best roughness was produced by this steel with Nano chromium powder at 2 g/L and 20 μs for this powder and the pulse duration.     

变化环境下由设计暴雨推求设计洪水方法研究

为推求变化环境下的设计洪水,以黄河上游唐乃亥站以上流域1967~2006年的年最大15d降雨量系列为例,基于设计暴雨与SWAT模型相结合的方法,首先构建变参数概率分布函数模型描述变化环境下非一致性暴雨极值系列的分布规律,随后基于等可靠度方法推求给定重现期条件下的设计暴雨值,再结合SWAT水文模型推求设计洪水。结果表明,变化环境下唐乃亥站以上流域各设计频率(P=10%、5%、2%、1%)的设计暴雨值随工程设计寿命(20、30、50、80、100年)的增大而减小,百年一遇设计洪峰从3 292m^3/s降至3 023m^3/s,洪量从29.9×10^8 m^3降至27.4×10^8 m^3。实例应用验证了该方法的可行性,可为变化环境下的设计洪水计算提供参考。     

高水电比重系统随机电力电量平衡模型与算法

针对高水电比重系统中电力电量平衡问题,首先考虑利用典型周负荷曲线进行电力电量平衡分析,以更好地计及工作日和非工作日不同的负荷曲线对可调水电站库容及火电站开机的影响。为恰当考虑风电场和光伏电站出力的不确定性和波动性,建立了基于随机优化的随机电力电量平衡模型,从概率的角度更好地分析和衡量风光电站对电量平衡的贡献。为方便该模型的求解,对非线性的水电转换函数进行线性化处理,得到混合整数规划模型,采用CPLEX对模型进行求解。以某高水电比重系统作为算例进行仿真分析,验证了所提随机电力电量平衡模型与算法的正确性和有效性,从概率的角度定量分析了风光电站的电量贡献。     

基于LCOE最优的数字化风电场及其关键技术研究

数字化风电场是风电场综合利用数字化技术的新阶段。在分析风电场建设管理所面临的挑战的基础上，讨论了平准化度电成本（LCOE）的计算公式和内涵，给出了数字化风电场的定义，阐述了基于LCOE最优的数字化风电场的“风、机、场、网、环”五大特征以及数字化技术在降低LCOE中的作用。最后，总结了实现数字化风电场的风资源、大数据平台、数据分析建模、数字孪生和数据安全五大关键技术。     

Environmental contours for circular‐linear variables based on the direct sampling method

Environmental contours are often used in the design of engineering structures to identify extreme environmental conditions that may give rise to extreme loads and responses. The perhaps most common application of environmental contours is for wave climate variables such as significant wave height and wave period. However, for the design of wind energy installations, the joint distribution of wind speed and wind direction may be equally important. In this case, joint modelling of linear (wind speed) and circular (wind direction) variables are needed, and methods for establishing environmental contours for circular‐linear variables will be required. In this paper, different ways of establishing environmental contours for circular‐linear variables will be presented and applied to a joint distribution model for wind speed and wind direction. In particular, the direct sampling approach to environmental contours will be modified to the case where one of the variables is cyclic. In addition, contours based on exceedance planes in polar coordinates will be established, and circular‐linear contours will also be calculated based on the inverse FORM (I‐FORM) approach.     

一种改进的合成流量法及其在水文预报中的应用

合成流量法对下游站流量作出预报的关键是确定各上游站流量到达下游站的时间。在实际中常采用平均传播时间,然而不同水情下真实传播时间与平均传播时间存在一定的差距,影响预报精度。对此,提出时间窗口概念,以平均传播时间为中心,向前、后各开一个时间窗口,用上游各站时间窗口内流量的线性组合表示其到达下游站的流量,以提高模型对不同水情的适应能力和预报精度。以三峡水库2009~2015年流量数据率定参数,以2016~2018年流量数据作为预报对象,试验结果表明时间窗口法能够显著改善预报精度。     

冷热电三联供系统的优化研究

冷热电联供系统主要应用于大型集中性供能系统中。作为分布式能源的一种,冷热电联供系统具有节约能源、改善环境、提高电力综合效益的优势。一般情况下,三联供系统是以天然气为燃料带动燃气轮机、微燃机或内燃机发电机等燃气发电设备运行,产生的电力供应用户的电力需求,系统发电后排出的余热通过余热回收利用设备(余热锅炉或者余热直燃机等)向用户供热、供冷。通过这种方式提高整个系统的一次能源利用率,实现能源的梯级利用,还可以提供并网电力作能源互补,经济收益和效率均得以提升。研究较为常见的燃气轮机中的一种蒸汽型吸收式冷热电联产系统,对不同配置方式和运行方式进行横向与纵向交叉比较,以完成系统优化研究。     

A spectrally selective surface structure for combined photothermic conversion and radiative sky cooling

The sun and outer space are the ultimate heat and cold sources for the earth, respectively. They have significant potential for renewable energy harvesting. In this paper, a spectrally selective surface structure that has a planar polydimethylsiloxane layer covering a solar absorber is conceptually proposed and optically designed for the combination of photothermic conversion (PT) and nighttime radiative sky cooling (RC). An optical simulation is conducted whose result shows that the designed surface structure (i.e., PT-RC surface structure) has a strong solar absorption coefficient of 0.92 and simultaneously emits as a mid-infrared spectral-selective emitter with an average emissivity of 0.84 within the atmospheric window. A thermal analysis prediction reveals that the designed PT-RC surface structure can be heated to 79.1°C higher than the ambient temperature in the daytime and passively cooled below the ambient temperature of approximately 10°C in the nighttime, indicating that the designed PT-RC surface structure has the potential for integrated PT conversion and nighttime RC utilization.